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CA-based Air Lease Corporation is primarily involved in purchasing commercial aircraft directly from the manufacturers, leasing the same to its airline customers across the globe. Noteworthy manufacturers that the company works with are Bping and Airbus.

Besides leasing, the company sells planes to third parties such as other leasing companies, financial services and corporate airline entities. It also provides investors and owners with fleet management services and charges a management fee in return. The company faces competition from aircraft manufacturers, banks, financial institutions, other leasing companies, aircraft brokers and airlines.

Fundamental numbers:

• 38.90+ Weighted Alpha
• 35.72% gain in the last year
• Recently traded at $50.76 with 50 day moving average of $43.09
• Market Cap $5.60 billion
• P/E 9.53
• Dividend yield 1.63%
• Revenue projected to grow 6.30% this year and grow another 10.00% next year
• Earnings estimated to increase an additional 19.90% next year
• Compound at an annual rate of 26.16% for the next 5 years

Price to Earnings:

• AL is good value based on its earnings relative to its share price (9.84x), compared to the US Rental & Leasing Services industry average (16.24x)
• AL is good value based on its earnings relative to its share price (9.84x), compared to the US market average (44.45x)

Profit Margin

• AL's profit margin has increased (+27.3%) in the last year from (-6%) to (21.3%)

Assets to Liabilities

• AL's debt has increased relative to shareholder equity (3.25), over the past 5 years ago (2.85)
• AL's debt to equity ratio (3.25) is considered high

Cash Flow

• Operating Cash Flow: The company generated $1.7 billion in cash from operating activities, indicating robust operational efficiency and a healthy cash inflow from its core business activities.
• Investing Cash Flow: AL had a negative investing cash flow of $2.8 billion, mainly due to capital expenditures of $4.528 billion, reflecting significant investments in property, plant, and equipment, likely for expanding its fleet of aircraft.
• Financing Cash Flow: The financing activities provided $716 million, with debt issuance contributing significantly to this inflow, suggesting the company is financing its expansion partly through new debt.
• Free Cash Flow: The free cash flow was negative at $2.781 billion, influenced by the high capital expenditures, highlighting the company's substantial investments in its growth

Analyst forecast:

Projected Sales and EPS growth

• Quarterly and annual sales estimates from 2023 to 2025,show consistent pattern of growth. Sales are expected to increase each quarter, with the annual total also rising year over year from $2.685 billion in actual sales for 2023 to an estimated $3.111 billion in 2025.
• EPS estimates follow a similar growth trend, with a rise in each subsequent year from 2023's actuals of $5.14 to an estimated $5.72 in 2025.

Earnings and growth history

• AL's has demonstrated consistent long-term earnings growth over the past 10 years (174.47%)

Consensus estimates

• Strong track record of rewarding its shareholders, reflected in its notable dividend payment history. On November 3, 2023, the company raised its quarterly cash dividend by 5%, moving from 20 cents to 21 cents per share, set to be paid on January 10, 2024, to shareholders
• Experienced a significant 11% year-over-year revenue increase in 2022, fueled by the expansion of its fleet, which saw the acquisition of 60 new aircraft. As of the end of 2023, the company’s fleet comprised 463 owned and 78 managed aircraft, with an additional 334 aircraft on order from Boeing and Airbus scheduled for delivery by 2029.
• The demand for Air Lease's wide-body passenger aircraft has been supported by robust freight and cargo markets, along with a recovery in airline operations, driving lease demands.
• Consistently surpassed earnings expectations. Performance continued in the fourth quarter of 2023, with earnings per share of $1.89 exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.1, marking a 56.2% year-over-year increase. Revenues also exceeded expectations, with a total of $716.6 million, 19.11% higher than the previous year.

I am not a financial analyst , trader or a financial advisor. I curate analysis. Nothing I publish should be taken as investment trading or broking advice. The data I use is curated from various news sources and based on the date it's taken number's may change. Reader's should do their own analysis for the most up-to-date numbers.